首页
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
上下棋牌NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
loading...

A Multi-Risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown

Daron Acemoglu, Victor Chernozhukov, Iván Werning, Michael D. Whinston

NBER Working Paper No. 27102
Issued in May 上下棋牌
NBER Program(s):Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Health Economics, Public Economics

We develop a multi-risk SIR model (MR-SIR) where infection, hospitalization and fatality rates vary between groups—in particular between the “young”, “the middle-aged” and the “old”. Our MR-SIR model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy similar to those already developed in the context of the homogeneous-agent SIR models. For baseline parameter values for the COVID-19 pandemic applied to the US, we find that optimal policies differentially targeting risk/age groups significantly outperform optimal uniform policies and most of the gains can be realized by having stricter lockdown policies on the oldest group. For example, for the same economic cost (24.3% decline in GDP), optimal semi–targeted or fully-targeted policies reduce mortality from 1.83% to 0.71% (thus, saving 2.7 million lives) relative to optimal uniform policies. Intuitively, a strict and long lockdown for the most vulnerable group both reduces infections and enables less strict lockdowns for the lower-risk groups. We also study the impacts of social distancing, the matching technology, the expected arrival time of a vaccine, and testing with or without tracing on optimal policies. Overall, targeted policies that are combined with measures that reduce interactions between groups and increase testing and isolation of the infected can minimize both economic losses and deaths in our model.

上下棋牌download in pdf format
   (788 K)

上下棋牌email paper

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w27102

 
上下棋牌Publications
上下棋牌Activities
上下棋牌Meetings
上下棋牌NBER Videos
上下棋牌Themes
上下棋牌Data
上下棋牌People
上下棋牌About
上下棋牌
上下棋牌 上下棋牌 上下棋牌 上下棋牌 上下棋牌 上下棋牌 上下棋牌 上下棋牌
上下棋牌
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@

Contact Us

友情链接:安徽体彩11选5 云南11选5遗漏 甘肃11选5遗漏 湖北体彩新11选5走势图 内蒙11选5开奖结果 江苏11选5开奖直播 11选5杀号公式 甘肃11选5开奖结果 重庆11选5走势图